Autonomous driving is one of the megatrends shaping the automotive industry, driven by Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) architectures. While shipments of fully self-driving cars will remain small throughout the rest of the decade, semi-autonomous (Level 2, Level 3) features are already becoming common in the smart mobility market. From active safety features many automakers are already familiar with to automated highway cruise control, autonomous driving technology is maturing. However, more advanced applications still need development time before being safe for mass deployment. This article will evaluate the primary applications, benefits, and enabling technologies dictating the future direction of autonomous driving.
Chart 1: New Vehicle Shipments by Level of Automation
(Source: ABI Research)
Driving is a repetitive and burdensome activity prone to many safety risks. Generally speaking, humans do not excel at performing driving tasks and are easily distracted. Therefore, automating or semi-automating the driving experience is a practical next step to improving automotive experiences. The list below outlines the three main benefits of autonomous driving:
The market for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will unfold along two key dimensions: feature automation and driver disengagement. While the former includes basic active safety features, the latter is closer to the fully autonomous driving experience the industry envisions.
Thanks to the General Safety Regulation (GSR) 2 in Europe and safety rating agencies in the United States, automatic active safety is a popular application for self-driving. Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADASs) are a staple in the automotive industry, with roughly 60% of vehicles shipped in 2023 equipped with them.
An ADAS solution provides the following safety features:
In addition to active safety features, ADASs also make the driving experience more convenient, providing Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Relative Speed-Based Routing (RSR), and High Beam Assist (HBA).
Autonomous vehicles can have features like speed and following distance control, lane keeping, maneuver overtaking, exit taking, and traffic merging. Today’s Level 2 (L2) systems leave much to be desired, lacking many key features for the full autonomous driving experience. ABI Research observes that Level 2+ or Level 2.5 will inch closer to truly automated car functionality. These more advanced systems can automate enough driving tasks to support point-to-point navigation whereby every maneuver is automated on the driver’s behalf, whether in the city, in the suburbs, or on the highway. However, these AV applications still require driver supervision. Not until Level 4 of vehicle autonomy will complete eyes-free applications be achieved.
Highway driving involves repetitive tasks for long periods, making it a relatively easier AV application for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to target than complex urban environments. This AV use case will be especially appealing for cross-country drivers. Not only does automated highway driving give drivers back more time, but it also ensures a safe trip when the driver gets sleepy behind the wheel.
Highway driving is easy to target for automation because the journey is predictable; there are no cyclists to worry about, no children running around the street, lanes are well marked, and everyone is traveling in the same direction. At the same time, automated driving addresses the boredom that drivers often experience on the highway, such as sitting in a traffic jam. The application allows drivers to perform more enjoyable tasks, such as reading a book during certain scenarios. In this context, automating highway driving is appealing in two ways: it’s relatively easy to implement for OEMs and it improves the driving experience. ABI Research sees this being be a short to mid-term opportunity for OEMs, providing excellent value for consumers.
While a longer-term opportunity, Level 4 vehicle autonomy will be the bridge to full, point-to-point navigation in the future. This smart mobility application primarily addresses the complexity of urban driving scenarios, which require more maneuvers and stops. Whereas Level 3 systems will still require the driver to be available as a backup, Level 4 automation safely drives the car without human intervention.
Once full-fledged AV applications become safer, cost-effective, and mature, there will be less need for human taxi drivers (or Uber, Lyft, and other ride-sharing service drivers). Our analysts foresee the rollout of “robotaxis” as a gradual process with some bumps along the road. For example, the recent functionality issues of Cruise autonomous taxis in San Francisco highlight the immaturity of AVs in dense city environments. The path to AV-based shared mobility will also include adopting semi-autonomous features in passenger vehicles.
Further Reading
Imaging Radar’s Potential to Undercut LiDAR for Autonomous Driving (AN-5806)
Inceptio and Ambarella to Deliver SAE Level 3 as Industry Focuses on Making Autonomous Trucking Work at Scale
Behind every autonomous driving application is technology, no matter how basic or advanced the application. Below is a list of some of the key technological underpinnings of AVs.
Autonomous driving is just one of the three megatrends defining the future of smart mobility, alongside the software-defined car and electrification. To learn more about the advantages, technologies, and applications related to these automotive trends, download the free whitepaper: The Software-Driven Megatrends Shaping The Automotive Industry.