The Future is Now for Contactless, Autonomous Delivery

Prior to the pandemic, autonomous delivery technologies, from pods to robots and drones, led a wave of trials across multiple geographies. Use cases were focused on meal delivery, fulfilment, and medical centers, and some limited grocery pilots. Now, there are recurring announcements of government agencies approving exceptions to permit more rapid and widespread adoption of these autonomous form factors. This opens up previously unheard of opportunities for technology, delivery, and robotics leaders and startups to accelerate operations on city streets, sidewalks, and air space, supporting touchless delivery and protecting both frontline workers and consumers.

As social distancing and stay at home orders have been enacted globally, there has been massive interest in touchless delivery options. According to Apptopia, downloads for Instacart, Walmart Grocery, and Shipt had increases of 218%,160%, and 124% from February to mid-March 2020, potentially moving online grocery penetration from 5% to 12% by the end of the year. The Guardian recently stated that online grocery sales for Tesco have more than doubled in six weeks.

One of the most notable examples is California-based Nuro’s autonomous delivery pods. They received National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and State of California exception permissions to operate its R2 autonomous delivery vehicles on public roads for meals and groceries with the largest fleet, which will be growing to over 5,000. They have also operated in Arizona and Texas with companies like Walmart, Kroger, and Dominos.

Competitor Starship Technologies has approximately 600 delivery robots, with a goal of 5,000 next year. In Milton Keynes, England, Starship has delivered food to nearly 200,000 residents, and is the first commercial deployment in the United Kingdom. British supermarkets and restaurants have since reached out requesting delivery support. Restaurant meals and small grocery orders are also available with Tesco and Co-op. In the United States, the company is operating with Door Dash and Postmates in Washington, DC and at least six states.

Neolix, an autonomous shuttle vehicle startup in China, recently raised US$29 million and has seen a 10X increase in orders for its autonomous delivery platform, with a confirmed 1,000 orders. These vehicles have been used to deliver food and sell preventative goods, with annual production capacity pegged at 10,000 vehicles. Clients have included Huawei, Alibaba, Meituan-Dianping, and JD, with a recent add of Dubai-based e-commerce startup Noon.com.

The U.S., U.K., and Chinese fleets mentioned above are increasingly being used to deliver critical medical supplies, test kits, and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to health workers in hospitals and temporary health centers. Many new use cases, from delivery to security and sanitation, are under development or early usage.

Each week there is further evidence of the benefits and safe operation of these autonomous robotic deliveries. Unlike trials such as Uber with human-machine interaction issues, higher speeds, and larger sizes, these vehicles offer less risk and a compelling value proposition in today’s environment. Even post-pandemic, at least some forms of distancing and safety protocols are likely to continue either through regulation, corporate culture, or societal desires.

These autonomous vehicles, however, are not without their flaws, and it is clear further development is needed before they become fully functional, reliable, and ubiquitous. Some customers receiving a Starship delivery saw their groceries arrive in less than half an hour with no issues. Others report waiting for hours and even the robot failing to open upon arrival with no means of contacting anyone for assistance. Additionally, the companies must consider the challenge of successfully navigating crowded sidewalks, bike paths, and streets once the population returns to the new normal. There is also the matter of security for both the robot and its cargo. Some of these challenges are technical, including computer vision and Artificial Intelligence (AI), and other considerations include sociological norms such as a desire for greater human contact.

Sufficient, successful autonomous deliveries will evolve from one-offs to thousands of vehicles. A regular delivery courtesy of a sanitized robot is plausible. The convenience factor is likely to remain high and some populations greatly benefit from threshold deliveries. As in trucking, there can be customization from keeping items cold to hot to specific types of packaging. Other considerations include in-app confirmations/notice/rerouting.

 Still, a wave of robotic delivery vehicles has its limitations, from size of goods to navigating stairs and multi-dwelling units as well as the need to disinfect after each use. Although none are yet ready to deploy at a large scale and the technology is not fully realized in some cases, at least some of these companies will likely become the Waymo/Uber of delivery.