Vaccine Distribution to Strain Capacity and Create Disruptions Across Supply Chain

There are fifty COVID-19 vaccine candidates in trials per the World Health Organization (WHO). However, there remains uncertainty as to how this will impact the global supply chain, including specific requirements for air cargo capacity, vital trade lanes, quality control, and track and trace. Rural areas in developed countries and developing countries will struggle with ultra-low temperature requirements, distribution of smaller quantities, and qualified transport and medical personnel. No one company can own the full end-to-end supply chain for vaccines, even within a given country. Initial plans in the U.S. to vaccinate 20 million citizens has fallen far short with only ~10% of that goal complete 48 hours prior to the end of 2020.

At least one early vaccine (Pfizer) requires ultra-low temperatures, as low as –70°C (–94°F). This is caused by a lack of sufficient storage documentation for these new types of Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines. The containers used to store and transport them are not required for common vaccines and thus not widely available. Constant temperature control is needed from the manufacturing site to the inoculation sites. According to known criteria, people will require two vaccines from the same manufacturer within 21 to 28 days, requiring at least 662 million doses in the United States and approximately 1.5 billion across the European Union. Temperature-control challenges in the U.S. and Germany alone have resulted in an estimated 5,500 compromised doses from the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, only some of which will be cleared for usage.

The vaccine value chain will strain capacity and create significant disruption to all phases of global transport infrastructure. Frederic Gomer, partner at B2G Consulting, stated that one Airbus A340/A350 or Boeing 777 can transport a million vaccine doses. Considering the need for vaccine boosters, it would take 12,000 of these aircraft to supply vaccines to 75% of the global population.

The worldwide freight industry is gearing up for an initial 2021 goal of transporting an average of 9 million ultracold and cold doses per day. This will require approximately 856 temperature-controlled trucks outbound from Pfizer and Moderna manufacturing facilities or distribution centers monthly. Distribution and delivery will continue to grow and get more complicated after the large urban and suburban areas are covered. Without a coordinated strategy, the volume will become very challenging, especially with current cold chain constraints and delivery delays for new freezers growing to over one month and up to several months.

Although some governments may place requirements upon private companies, companies such as DHL, UPS, and FedEx have been working with governments and previously low-visibility pharma specialists to enable these massive programs. It is expected that additional strategic partners will be evaluated and enabled for greater reach into rural areas. One area of potential concern will be the number of commercial drivers and cold chain vehicles to address this volume, especially as many of the vaccines require two doses. There is potential for these limitations to spill over for some period of time, impacting other cold chain verticals including food and beverage.

Other related elements of the vaccine rollout will need to be secured and potentially integrated, including detailed databases on the inoculations (manufacturer, dose number, lot, date/time, location, and some data on the person’s age, gender, etc.) to both ensure completion as well as maintain two-way communications regarding any side effects. There is early debate on “vaccine passports” that would need to link to this data for use cases from air travel to employers to schools and hospitals. Security and privacy may be addressed through emerging technology like blockchain.

Resilience and adaptability are critical components of the supply chain. They can be strengthened from solutions offering integrated and end-to-end visibility to the optimization of related supplies (syringes, dry ice, dilution material, etc.), inventory and routing optimization, automation and cold chain performance, and health monitoring. Developing countries will need solutions that do not require freezing, as well as newer delivery forms such as drones. This global effort is currently expected to continue into 2024, with later stages becoming increasingly challenging to complete. Those that are able to adapt, integrate, and scale stand to make the greatest impact on their business and society.