How Will Trump and Elon Musk’s Victory Reshape the Space Industry?

The U.S. election ended with the emergence of a new Trump administration backed and closely advised by space industry disruptor, SpaceX’s Elon Musk. While currently listed on Forbes as the wealthiest person on Earth, he has been responsible for significant disruption and transformation in the space sector with his Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite network, Starlink (currently over 6,400 active satellites in orbit), and space launch company SpaceX (accounting for over 42% of total orbital launches in 2024). Elon Musk has spent more than US$130 million to help elect Donald Trump and other Republicans and he’s also poised to lead a government efficiency commission, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk’s dual role as both a government advisor and the owner of companies that could benefit from policy changes raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Many questions have arisen on how exactly SpaceX and Starlink could benefit from Musk’s new influence on the U.S. government. Here are some highlights:

• Full Approval of Starlink Gen 2: Starlink has both consumer and defense applications, so it was always a technology closely tied to the government. A Trump presidency could potentially favor SpaceX and Starlink with earning more grants and contracts (such as the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program to provide rural broadband Internet), and even benefit from getting full approval of the Gen 2 network (30,456 satellites), but it may draw protests from other quarters. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could also authorize SpaceX’s Starship rocket system launch cadence to increase to 25 per year, versus the current 5 launches authorized.
• A More Hands-Off FCC: Trump could appoint a new FCC chair aligned with his views and shift the agency’s priorities to favor rapid network deployment. While these potential changes would benefit SpaceX’s Starlink operations, any significant regulatory changes would likely face scrutiny and potential legal challenges. There is criticism, however, that the FCC has not effectively assessed the environmental impact of mega constellations (1,000+ satellite networks). ABI Research estimates that over 10,200 active satellites are in orbit today. Over 93% of these satellites are in LEO, which eventually need to be reentered into the Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, a rapid change in FCC priorities could increase the potential for collision and space debris, as well as waste from deorbited satellites on Earth, with some estimates reaching 29 tons of waste per day from a fully deployed 42,000 Starlink network. We estimate that, by 2030, there will be over 37,000 satellites in LEO, and following these estimates, waste produced from deorbited satellites could potentially contribute 25 tons of waste per day.
• LEO Advocation: This administration will likely make strides in evolving the LEO mega constellation market, including streamlining regulation, and enhancing access to different programs, grants, and markets. LEO systems are rapidly evolving, and regulation and policy are hardly keeping pace. This administration will likely look at implementing a more proactive approach to LEO mega-constellations than a reactive one. This could include advocating for more favorable spectrum allocations with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and pushing for strict coordination efforts between different constellations, especially from different countries. Evolving space governance related to space debris, coordination between different networks, and legal frameworks in the context of increasing technological threats (such as cyberwarfare, adversarial Artificial Intelligence (AI), and quantum computing) will be critical for the next few decades of this technology. The ITU has little enforcement mechanism and relies on good-faith cooperation by the parties involved, so new treaties surrounding some of these issues should be considered.

Starlink has quickly risen as a dominant and disruptive force in the satellite industry, rapidly penetrating legacy satellite communications segments and reaching more than 4 million subscribers this year. Satellite operators around the world are quickly adopting the LEO satellite network with a direct-to-consumer business model. While skeptics may remain, conversations in the space industry consistently reinforce the same message: LEO is not just for Elon Musk, and everyone (Amazon, OneWeb, E-Space, China, the European Union (EU), Canada, etc.) wants in.

In this way, the “LEO gold rush” is still very much in full swing, and operators looking to adopt this new model will be able to benefit from Musk’s influence. It should be noted, however, that Musk does not hold an official government position and will provide advice and guidance from outside of the government.

• Adapt to Regulatory Changes: Regulatory changes, for better or worse, are going to be a necessary adaption that companies in the space sector will need to grapple with. Staying informed on changes to FCC regulations, especially regarding spectrum allocation and satellite launches will be critical for future operation planning and success.
• Leverage New Opportunities: Potential reform and enhanced support of LEO networks may be the “smoking gun” some companies need to be convinced to enter the LEO market. Even if launching their own network is not in the cards, there is certainly an opportunity for collaboration with SpaceX, Amazon, or other companies that may benefit from the new administration’s policies.
• Remain Agile: Success for many will mean being ready to adapt business plans to policy changes and developments in both the regulatory environment and technological advancements.

By focusing on these areas, space companies and their partners can position themselves to navigate the potential changes and capitalize on new opportunities that may arise in this evolving landscape. Despite these potential evolutions, satellite stakeholders should be cautious of the potential fallout of rapid reform in the space industry under Trump and Musk, which may attract legal recourse due to any perceived undue influence.