Asia Pacific Space Community Council 2024: Going Beyond Communications

ABI Research recently attended the annual Asia Pacific Space Community Council Conference (APSCC 2024) (previously known as the Asia Pacific Satellite Communications Conference) held in Bangkok this year, bringing together old and new space players in the region to share their views on the industry. The focus of this conference was “Navigating an Unchartered Future: Facing Disruptions and Opportunities in the Space Industry,” highlighting the growing concerns in relation to how global Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) players are disrupting the industry. In this regard, the attendees and conference program focused on the effects of SpaceX’s disruption throughout the industry and ways to prepare for the inevitable impact of new players, such as Amazon Project Kuiper and Chinese mega-constellations on the horizon. While these topics encapsulated much of the conference topics, there was an emphasis on shifting to new emerging and non-communication segments, such as Earth Observation (EO), Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML), optical lasers, and more, to provide a more comprehensive space solution.

• Commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Still Has Many Critics: At the conference, there was much speculation surrounding the long-term viability of commercial LEO networks. Adeptly put, the "commercial space experiment" is still very much in full swing without a clear outcome. The fact that SpaceX is still only marginally profitable and is a supply chain and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)-intensive project is a sobering fact that the industry needs to acknowledge over the hype (although I think they are missing the point). Some companies in the discussion (APT-Satellite (Hong Kong)) also made it clear that they see the future in Asia being presided over by much more region-focused players instead of global players. Additionally, strategies for improving the economics, flexibility, and security of the legacy satellite business through micro-Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) systems, software-defined satellites, quantum computing/resiliency, AI/ML for data analytics, LEO as a multi-orbit business multiplier, and employing as-a-Service models, such as Space Infrastructure-as-a-Service, Fly Missions-as-a-Service, and other strategies, to ultimately help reduce the barriers to deploying space technologies were discussed.
• Regional Focus and Expanding Government & Defense: Discussions at the conference made it apparent that some see momentum shifting to a more national focus on satellite networks, where each country owns and operates its infrastructure and implements strict policies for landing rights and access to the market. Naturally, the focus on national networks supporting domestic markets (versus global networks seen in the West) by various operators means space operators are looking to build more value in the government and defense sectors. Now it seems that every country, union, state, or otherwise sees the value of having their space assets built, launched, and operated in-nation for concerns primarily attributed to data sovereignty, priorities in national defense, and harnessing national spectrum resources. What may make more sense, however, is organizing into larger regional operations, rather than clusters of individual, national deployments, as they can provide more comprehensive services and achieve more scale throughout the region and drive affordable costs for services.
• Beyond Communications: There is a shift from pure communications as the only component for a total national network solution, and the inclusion of EO enhanced with AI/ML to accelerate public sector competencies and manage regional assets, such as farms, forests, shipping routes, air traffic, and, of course, other in-space assets. Eartheye, for example, offers a comprehensive platform that provides access to EO data from any satellite operator. It enables near-real-time data collection and analysis through its Tasking-as-a-Service feature, allowing users to easily request and receive satellite imagery. This makes Eartheye an attractive and accessible solution for users looking to leverage EO capabilities, with minimal barriers to entry in terms of cost, availability, and usability. Optical technologies were another emerging technology discussed, which showed surprising applications. Orbital Lasers, for example, manufactures optical laser terminals that can be mounted on satellites. These terminals use low-powered lasers to remotely control the orbit and movement of other objects in space by creating precise plasma propulsion points on the target object's surface, effectively turning it into an on-the-spot thruster. Additionally, the lasers are used for Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing.
• China Rising: While commentary and presentations surrounding the state of affairs for Chinese space were fairly surface-level, there is much discussion around the emergence of China as a space tech superpower. In particular, the announcement and launch of several LEO mega-constellations by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) (14,000 satellites), Shanghai Lanjian Hongqing Technology (Shanghai) (10,000 satellites), and Guowang (China Satellite Network Group Ltd. - 13,000 satellites) has some concerned that immense competition is imminent.

Despite great ambitions, only SSST has begun to launch, with 2 batches of 18 satellites in 2024. In this regard, many more satellites will need to be launched before these networks can provide continuous global coverage. Furthermore, these networks will primarily serve as a critical backup layer for mainland China (which is already well covered by terrestrial 5G) and seek commercial opportunities overseas in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, likely through infrastructure and device ecosystem partnerships. While there are opportunities, much progress is needed with acquiring landing rights and deploying network infrastructure before these networks enter as serious competitors in the global space market. Progress, however, is being made rapidly and reflects some of the industry’s attitude about focusing inward on domestic markets for regional players.

In the wake of a rapidly evolving market, regional and old space industry players are starting to shift their sights to new business opportunities. Some of this comes in the form of exploring new national networks designed around LEO and industry-specific solutions, while others come in the form of exploring new solutions beyond communications. Despite these ambitions, many countries face challenges in the space sector. For one, many countries aspiring to build national LEO networks may not have the supply chains or manufacturing capacity to maintain and deploy these networks efficiently enough to create a sustainable business model. Additionally, securing funding for new networks, along with the launch capacity needed for initial deployment and ongoing maintenance, remains a significant hurdle. Moreover, attracting customers to make the business profitable—especially outside the home country—remains uncertain. Artificial barriers could further hinder the development of these national space networks, potentially limiting their viability as commercial ventures and reducing their role to more of a defense asset.

Despite these concerns, there is hope in leveraging industry-specific solutions and integrating services beyond just communications to create a comprehensive space solution. This involves adopting new business models that combine EO and remote sensing with satellite connectivity, Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, and edge computing to enable value-added applications in remote areas. Additionally, AI and ML can be used to enhance data analytics and predictive modeling, while automation can drive more autonomous networking capabilities. With the synergies unlocked through combining EO satellite systems with AI-enabled machine vision models, ABI Research forecasts in its latest release of Satellite Constellations and Launch 2024 (MD-SATCC-103) an increased demand curve for EO and remote sensing satellite systems, which will result in more than 2,426 active EO satellites deployed by 2033, representing a 2024 to 2033 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9%.