Post-Quantum Cryptography Revenue

The post-quantum era is drawing near, and the need for attack-resistant solutions is pivotal.

The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) solutions is forecast at US$246 million by the end of 2024, and doubling by 2028, reaching US$530 million. The revenue opportunity is set to grow more dynamically post 2025, as the NIST standards (expected in 2024) are integrated into commercial HSM products that are likely to hit the shelf at the end of 2024 or early 2025.

Initial market spending on PQC kicked off in 2020-2022 in the defense space, in automotive and aeronautics OEMs, and in supporting semiconductor markets, notably highly-critical markets (national security) and in those with long product life spans.

Market uptake will accelerate significantly between 2026 and 2028, as organizations increase spending on PQC solutions in order to align with national migration policy requirements for PQC readiness by 2030. The brunt of the spending there will be by critical infrastructure and other regulated sectors.

Post-2028, other industries will start their quantum-safe transition, as the risk of attack-capable quantum computers emerging looms closer, with the enterprise space, in general, feeling finally concerned enough to start investing in PQC

Primary solution offerings will focus on encryption and decryption capabilities, as well as Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) (especially for Secure Sockets Layer (SSL)), Encryption Key Management (EKM), and signing (code, software, firmware, etc.). HSM offerings will need to be able to offer these capabilities immediately for identity, authentication, and access management, data protection and communication security in the traditional Information Technology (IT) space, but eventually also for the broader Operational Technology (OT)/Internet of Things (IoT) market, too, including custom applications, and niche and legacy equipment.