Digital Travel Credentials Take Off, Achieving 15% Global Penetration by 2032

Digital Travel Credentials (DTCs) are due to become part of the growing identity metasystem worldwide as the newest manifestation of digitalized identity, driven by leading identity and biometrics vendors under the aegis of enhanced passenger efficiency and bolstered security within the travel and immigration subsegments. Yet, simultaneously, DTCs’ acceptance and adoption hinges on the different infrastructural features and practical characteristics of Type 1, 2, and 3 DTCs, as well as acceptance from diverse market players and actors throughout the travel continuum. ABI Research, a global technology intelligence firm, forecasts a 15% global penetration rate for DTCs by 2032 as technical specifications, solidification of supporting infrastructure, growing digital maturity, and deepening interoperability converge to prime the digital ID space for DTC deployment.

“While Digital Travel Credentials (DTCs) are a natural evolution from e-passports, their implementation will be gradual due to the security-sensitive nature of travel, border control, and immigration. With many states lacking the digital maturity for widespread adoption, regional and global fragmentation is expected over the next decade. Although some leaders are piloting Type 2 DTCs, gaps in technical specifications for Types 2 and 3 hinder widespread testing, leaving Type 1 as the focus for the next five years. To unlock DTC growth, vendors must collaborate on standardization and deliver seamless, interoperable solutions,” explains Aisling Dawson, Industry Analyst at ABI Research.

Vendors primed for success understand the necessity of partnership and solution continuity, including digital ID giants like Thales, IN Groupe, Idemia, Entrust, and SITA. DTC’s potential as a tool beyond border control requires vendors to think holistically, shining a light on those who can bring value-added features and specialized expertise to the table and cater to other privacy-focused use cases like attributes-based disclosure. This includes start-ups like Neoke and established digital identity and biometrics organizations like Inverid, iProov, and Indicio.

Pre-existing digital ID schemes and identity-orientated regulation are the primary stimuli fueling regional growth and accelerating DTC adoption, with the North American region expected to take an early lead given the saturation of mobile driving licenses (mDL) in this region. However, Europe will present the most fertile ground for long-term, sustained adoption of DTCs, standing on the shoulders of comprehensive legislative schemes implemented throughout the 2020s.

“To succeed in the growing DTC market, vendors must understand their potential within and beyond the travel industry. Considering the value of each DTC type and its broader applications will be key for market positioning. While slow standardization and lack of harmonization hinder adoption, forward-thinking is essential. User experience is a critical differentiator for private partners and nation states selecting solutions, while concerns over quantum attacks on digital identity remain. Prioritizing quantum-resistant DTC solutions now will help vendors capitalize on emerging opportunities and facilitate the shift toward digitalized identity,” Dawson concludes.

These findings are from ABI Research’s Digital Travel Credentials: Key Companies and Digital Travel Credential Types: Key Characteristics and Market Readiness reports. These reports are part of the company’s Citizen Digital Identity research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.