NTN and Direct-to-Cellular Markets to Exceed US$17 Billion by 2032, with Apple and Starlink Leading the Charge

The Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) market is entering a new mass adoption phase. During 2H 2024, the iOS release 18, and Android 15 are set to introduce satellite messaging as a core feature, enabling millions of devices worldwide to tap into satellite connectivity. At the same time, SpaceX’s new Direct-to-Cellular (D2C) Starlink network is expected to launch commercial services in 2H 2024, enabling millions of LTE devices using Android 15 to access satellite connectivity. According to a new report from global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the total connection revenue generated from the NTN and D2C markets will reach US$17 billion a year by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8%.

With the rapid deployment of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) D2C networks like Starlink, AST Space Mobile, Lynk, alongside legacy Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) and NTN services available from GSO operators like Viasat (Inmarsat), EchoStar, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation innovation in the satellite NTN and D2C segment is accelerating. Andrew Cavalier, Satellite Communications Senior Analyst at ABI Research, explains, “The market is now rapidly shifting from narrowband emergency services supported on specific devices by NTN IoT protocols to two-way messaging and data services over terrestrial LTE, MSS, and NTN standards via satellite. While these services are taking distinct evolutionary tracks, this competition is reducing overall cost to these services while increasing accessibility to more users.”

The increased launch capacity within the satellite industry has set the stage for a surge in SatCom applications, heralding a new era of abundance in lower-cost satellite services. According to Cavalier, "NTN is primed to experience a surge in popularity, and ecosystems players such as chipset vendors alongside organizations like the Mobile Satellite Services Association (MSSA) are helping bridge the gap in technology, connectivity, and collaboration." Companies like Starlink and Apple are poised to lead the satellite NTN marketplace with the widespread launch of commercial services in 2024. "We anticipate the seamless access of Starlink and Apple Satellite connectivity on devices will attract new and existing customers to leverage this technology when outside terrestrial coverage. Users will expect these services to be affordable if not completely bundled together in more premium service offerings,” Cavalier points out.

Jake Saunders, Vice President at ABI Research, concludes, "NTN is rapidly evolving from a niche solution into a mainstream force that could shape the future of global ubiquitous connectivity. The rapid technological advancements and key roles of NTN, such as bridging the digital divide, providing global coverage, ensuring resilient communications, and supporting diverse applications, will drive the overall NTN market.”

These findings are from ABI Research’s Satellite Communications: Direct-to-Cellular & NTN Deployments & Subscriptions market data report. This report is part of the company’s Satellite Communications Innovation & Technologies research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights. Market Data spreadsheets comprise deep data, market share analysis, and highly segmented, service-specific forecasts to provide detailed insight into where opportunities lie.