This Research Highlight discusses three key predictions for Integrated Sensing and Communication (ISAC) technology, which enhances cellular networks with advanced sensing capabilities. With the potential to reshape 6G deployment and monetization strategies, ISAC is anticipated to face challenges such as the complexity of fully integrated systems and the global competitive landscape. The article emphasizes the importance of enterprise-driven applications and gradual integration beyond 2030, while highlighting the need for ISAC to achieve economic benchmarks similar to consumer mobile broadband.
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Market Overview
Integrated Sensing and Communication (ISAC) is an innovative technology poised to enhance cellular networks by incorporating advanced sensing capabilities, such as positioning and motion detection. By leveraging the spatial resolution of Massive Multiple Input, Multiple Output (mMIMO) antennas, ISAC enables the transmission of radar-like signals. These signals reflect off various objects and return to the base station, allowing for detailed environmental mapping, including the movement of objects. As a result, cellular networks can passively sense their surroundings, paving the way for transformative applications in the upcoming 6G landscape.
“ABI Research expects the commercialization of ISAC to take place after 2030, when initial 6G systems will already have rolled out. The new concept will not likely deploy with the first wave of 6G networks and will wait until 6G achieves a critical mass, mostly due to the development needed to commercialize it, as well as the radical new business opportunities it introduces.” – Dimitris Mavrakis, Senior Research Director at ABI Research
While ISAC is still in its early development stages, its potential to reshape the deployment and monetization of 6G is undeniable. Over the next few years, industry stakeholders will need to address key challenges, identify candidate technologies, and explore revenue opportunities. Here are three key predictions for the future of ISAC.
1. Complete ISAC Systems Won’t Materialize Until After 2030
Completely integrated systems that combine sensing and communication capabilities are expected to materialize long after 2030. The technical complexity involved in deploying these ISAC systems is considerable, especially given the necessity for global standardization by The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP). Currently, there are plans for cellular systems to act as central aggregators for third-party sensor data. The long-term vision is to merge these systems into a single framework, utilizing one waveform within the same communication channel for dual functions.
Mainstream deployment of cellular ISAC is expected to occur long after 2030, and it will not likely be included in the initial 6G rollouts. Significant advancements in waveforms, transceiver design, processing capabilities, and detection algorithms are essential. Furthermore, understanding which use cases resonate with various enterprise verticals will be crucial for successful implementation. 3GPP will need to prioritize requirements and technology development, as the previous approach of "build it and they will come" is no longer feasible.
Adding to the delayed time frame for ISAC is its currently limited profitability. To reach commercial maturity and achieve a significant volume of deployments, ISAC systems must meet a crucial economic criterion: the revenue per unit frequency (US$/Hz) must approach levels similar to those of consumer mobile broadband. This benchmark is unlikely to be met by the 2030 time frame, highlighting the need for continued innovation and strategic planning.
2. ISAC Will Induce Geopolitical Divides
The gap between Eastern and Western markets regarding ISAC continues to expand. The Chinese government is making significant investments in emerging sectors, particularly the low-altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market, where ISAC can offer substantial advantages. For instance, ZTE is deploying 500 ISAC-enabled sites in the 4.9 Gigahertz (GHz) band in the Shenzhen region in collaboration with China Mobile. In contrast, the U.S. government, including military interests, is heavily focused on advancing ISAC capabilities, emphasizing a competitive landscape.
3. Enterprise Applications Will Dictate ISAC Development
ISAC applications are likely to be primarily driven by the specific needs of enterprises, with deployment strategies tailored to national or localized contexts. For example, while drone detection may not be necessary on a national scale, it is critical in sensitive areas such as airports and critical infrastructure.
A key consideration is whether to postpone the rollout of pre-standard systems to facilitate the development of global standards. Since cellular ISAC systems can operate without device input, market fragmentation is a likely scenario compared to traditional cellular systems.
Key Companies
Conclusion
As ISAC technology evolves, it holds the promise to fundamentally transform cellular networks, enabling enhanced sensing capabilities alongside traditional communication functions. The next several years will be pivotal in shaping the future of ISAC, particularly as the industry addresses the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
For deeper insights into the advancements and implications of ISAC in the context of 6G, download the report Integrated Sensing and Communication: A Major 6G Innovation from ABI Research.
